I started tracking San Mateo’s shadow inventory in June. The numbers haven’t changed much. June was the high at 16. October was down to 2. November, 17. Although the numbers aren’t shocking I’m going to keep tracking until they – whoever that is – stops reporting that shadow inventory is going to sink the real estate market.
What is shadow inventory?
The whole idea of shadow inventory has been debated for months; does it exist or not? There were programs created to help home owners survive the real estate market bubble; unfortunately not all the effort has paid off. There’s the loan modification; some don’t qualify and some payments weren’t lowered enough. Or like HAMP many people don’t qualify. While frustrated home owners tried to make these things work for them it’s just delayed the inevitable: foreclosure. Since it’s taking up to 15 months to get the property through the process there’s now supposedly a backlog of houses that need to be sold: shadow inventory.
Why Haven’t We Seen A Giant Shadow Inventory In San Mateo?
I still don’t know. But I can’t resist remarking on last month’s remark that interest rates weren’t going to go down. They haven’t. They’ve gone up. Some home buyers are so focused on the cost of the house they’re not paying attention to the fact that they can’t afford the house they could two months ago because the interest rates have gone up.
Back to the shadow numbers…
11 bank owned properties listed in San Mateo in November. June is still the year high with 16 REO homes listed for sale.